There is no shortage of advice for leaders navigating uncertainty. Books, podcasts and training programmes offer leadership models, competency frameworks and lists of “top tips” designed to help people make better decisions under pressure. While these can certainly be useful, they often overlook the most important factor of all: the human element of leadership.

Leaders today often operate in an environment where uncertainty has become the norm rather than the exception. Budget restrictions, hiring freezes, organisational restructures, redundancies, rapid AI deployment and global economic instability have all created workplaces where the future can feel difficult to predict.

During our first Psychological Safety Week in 2025, we heard the same concerns repeatedly from leaders across different sectors. Questions such as, “How do I motivate my team when I can’t promise a pay rise or promotion this year?” and “How do I rebuild trust after a round of redundancies?” reflected a common challenge. The technical aspects of leadership weren’t the problem. The human side was.

In turbulent periods, that human side becomes even more important because uncertainty does not only affect performance or decision-making. It also affects how safe people feel to ask questions, admit mistakes, challenge decisions and speak openly about what is not working. Under these conditions, leadership is not just about setting direction. It is about creating enough clarity, trust and psychological safety for people to stay engaged and adaptable when the future feels unclear.

Effective leadership during turbulent times requires more than strategic thinking. It calls for empathy, openness, honesty and the ability to provide clarity as far as possible, even when not all the answers are available. And let’s not forget, uncertainty affects leaders too. Under pressure, even highly experienced leaders can become more reactive, more controlling, more withdrawn and less open to challenge. In challenging times, the question is not what leaders should do, but who they need to be for the people around them.

Mindset: How leaders make sense of uncertainty

A leader’s mindset shapes how they interpret uncertainty, and that interpretation directly influences how they behave. When uncertainty is automatically appraised as a threat, leaders are more likely to become anxious, defensive, controlling or withdrawn. When it is viewed as a challenge to understand and work through, they are better able to stay calm, think clearly and respond with intention.

This does not mean leaders should appear unaffected or project certainty they do not feel. Resilience is sometimes mistaken for toughness: carrying on regardless, minimising concerns or reassuring people that everything will be fine. In practice, these responses can create distance and undermine trust, particularly when team members can see that the situation is difficult.

Resilient leadership is better understood as rational positivity. It involves acknowledging challenges honestly while maintaining confidence that they can be understood, managed and worked through. This mindset allows leaders to stay grounded in reality without becoming overwhelmed by it, and offers others both honesty and hope.

It also shapes the climate around them. When leaders become threat-focused, people often sense that challenge, disagreement or bad news will be poorly received. When leaders approach uncertainty with openness and realism, they make it easier for others to raise concerns, share risks and contribute ideas honestly.

Temperament: How leaders respond when pressure rises

While mindset shapes how leaders interpret events, temperament influences what happens next: how they react when pressure rises.

Two leaders may face the same challenge and respond in very different ways. One may stay calm, curious and collaborative. Another may become impatient, overly directive or emotionally distant. These reactions are rarely random. They are often shaped by personality, habit and the patterns people fall back on under pressure. What are normally useful strengths can become overused. A highly conscientious leader may become excessively controlling. Someone who thrives on fast decision-making may stop listening to alternative views. A naturally supportive leader may avoid difficult conversations because they want to preserve harmony.

This is why self-awareness is so important. Leaders need to understand not only what they are good at, but also how those same qualities might show up less helpfully when they are tired, anxious or under pressure. Central to this is emotional regulation. It does not mean suppressing emotions or appearing stoic. It means noticing emotional responses, making sense of them and ensuring they do not dictate behaviour. Leaders who can regulate themselves are less likely to respond in ways that create fear, defensiveness or silence in others.

This matters because pressure responses do not only affect the leader’s own judgement. They also shape whether other people feel safe to contribute. A defensive or overly directive response can quickly signal that challenge is unwelcome, while emotional withdrawal can leave people uncertain about whether concerns should be voiced at all. Leaders who manage themselves well are therefore better able to preserve psychological safety, even when the wider context feels unstable.

Behaviour: What people actually experience every day

Ultimately, people do not experience a leader’s mindset or temperament directly. They experience the behaviours that flow from them: what the leader says, what they do, what they prioritise and how they conduct themselves when pressure rises.

In uncertain times, team members pay close attention to these small signals. They notice whether decisions are explained or simply announced. They notice whether concerns are genuinely heard or quickly closed down. They notice whether a leader remains approachable, follows through on commitments and keeps involving people.

These are the moments where leadership is tested. A leader may say they value openness, but if difficult questions are avoided, people learn to stay quiet. A leader may say they trust their team, but if every decision is pulled upwards, people learn that autonomy is conditional. Behaviour teaches people what is safe, what is valued and what is expected.

This is how psychological safety is built or eroded in everyday work. People take their cues from repeated interactions: whether they are listened to, whether uncertainty can be discussed openly, whether mistakes can be acknowledged early and whether challenge is treated as helpful rather than disruptive. In uncertain times, these behaviours matter even more because people are naturally more alert to interpersonal risk. Small moments of defensiveness, avoidance or inconsistency can have an outsized effect on whether people speak up.

Effective leadership, therefore, is not about the big things. It is built by consistent everyday actions: communicating what is known and what is still uncertain, explaining the reasoning behind decisions, checking in with people, inviting different views and making it clear that concerns can be raised without being dismissed.

Purpose also matters. Leaders cannot always remove uncertainty, but they can help people understand what to focus on and why their work still matters. In turbulent periods, this helps people cut through uncertainty, stay focused on what’s important and understand how their work contributes to the bigger picture.

Just as importantly, strong leaders protect the quality of relationships. People are more willing to navigate uncertainty when they believe their leader is paying attention, understands the pressure they are under and is prepared to support them through it. When leaders combine clarity with genuine care, teams are more likely to remain engaged, honest and adaptable.

People leadership becomes paramount

During periods of turbulence and uncertainty, it’s easy to fall into seeking to appear fearless or having every answer by focusing on the tasks and challenges that lie ahead, but people leadership arguably becomes even more important.

The most effective leaders recognise that uncertainty is a shared experience. They acknowledge reality without amplifying fear. They regulate their own emotions in order to be able to manage their behaviours. They communicate honestly, remain approachable and create environments where people continue to speak up, collaborate and adapt.

When leaders combine a healthy mindset, a well-managed temperament and behaviours that foster trust, openness and psychological safety, teams become more resilient, more engaged and better equipped to face whatever comes next. Turbulence may be unavoidable, but with thoughtful, human-centred leadership, teams and organisations can continue to learn, adapt and thrive.

Leaders who want to lead effectively during turbulent periods can ask themselves a few simple but powerful questions:

• How am I feeling about this situation, and how might those feelings be affecting my leadership?
• What strengths can I rely on, and where might my natural tendencies become unhelpful?
• If I were a member of my own team, what would I need from my leader right now?
• Have I actually asked my team what they need?

These reflections often reveal practical actions that leaders might otherwise overlook. Encouraging quieter voices to contribute during meetings, genuinely listening to concerns and reassuring people that solutions remain possible all help build confidence, even when certainty remains elusive.